Кива Алексей Васильевич

Реформы в Китае и России: сравнительный анализ

Москва, 2015, 304 стр.

Монография посвящена сравнительному анализу реформ и их результатов в Китае и России. Обе страны прошли через этап «государственного социализма», но потом их развитие пошло по разным моделям. В результате Китай стал второй экономикой в мире, в то время как Россия по объему ВВП только в 2007 г. вышла на дореформенный уровень, потеряв при этом многое из того, что было достигнуто в советские годы. В работе дается обстоятельный анализ причин таких разных результатов. Автор показывает реальную картину в обеих странах, не пытаясь ничего приукрашивать или чернить. При этом он приводит точки зрения как российских, так и зарубежных авторов на реформы в двух странах и перспективы их дальнейшего развития. Монография представляет интерес как в теоретическом, так и в практическом плане. Несмотря на то, что две страны пошли по разным траекториям, из китайского опыта мы могли бы многое позаимствовать. Книга написаны «живым языком», читается легко и представляет интерес как для ученых и специалистов, так и широкого читателя, при том, что она богата фактическим материалом.

English version


The monograph “Reforms in China and in Russia. Comparative Analysis” by Alexey Vasilyevich Kiva, Ph.D, Chief Scientific Researcher-Consultant at the Institute of Oriental Studies of Russian Academy of Sciences, focuses on reforms carried out in contemporary history in two big neighbouring countries with vast influence in the world and a similar historical background. The People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation as a successor to the USSR were both engaged in building socialism according to Marx and Lenin’s teaching, each, however, adapting it to the relevant national conditions. Yet, later on their paths diverged. The authorities of postSoviet Russia decisively rejected socialism in favour of capitalism, using shock therapy methods which are well-known to Russians. By contrast, after Deng Xiaoping came to power, Beijing started implementing reforms within the paradigm of gradualism, without rejecting either socialism or Marxism-Leninism, but rather giving both of them a new shape and a new lease of life. It was accomplished without a revolutionary demolition of the political and economic system, putting emphasis on an increase rather than a decline in the citizens’ living standards. – This paper is of comparative nature; it consists of an introduction, six sections and a conclusion. In the introduction the author gives an overview of the source study base and names the major lines of his research. The first section is devoted to identifying similarities and differences between the Chinese and Russians, special features of the Chinese society and the vitality factor of the Chinese civilization, which extends back over five thousand years. The second section deals with the model of Chinese reforms, its major components, principles, and priorities. The third section looks at social and economic transformations in post-Soviet Russia, the quality of the reform model, professionalism and philosophy of its executors, their priorities, etc. The fourth chapter is devoted to political reforms in China and in Russia. The author gives particular attention to the problem of the actual change in the vector of social development of the People’s Republic of China, the role played by the reform initiator Deng Xiaoping and the ruling Communist Party in that transformation, its political-ideological and social essence, and reveals his understanding of “socialism with special Chinese features”. As far as Russia is concerned, the author focuses on the problem of shaping the post-Soviet political system. The fifth section deals with big projects in both countries, covering high-tech and scientific development there. The sixth section is devoted to the image of China in Russia and in the world. Naturally, the paper also incorporates the issue of Russian-Chinese relations. In the conclusion the author gives a brief analysis of the two countries’ achievements, pointing out the problems and difficulties faced by them. – It should be emphasized that the author does not confuse the development strategy of a country with the model of social-economic and other reforms,

which is otherwise often the case. In China the development strategy is building “socialism with special Chinese features”, whereas its interim objective is to create a “moderately well-off society” (“xiaokang”). It is a society where each Chinese should be provided with all the necessary things at a fairly acceptable level, rather than a high one, including a job, housing, opportunities to study and get medical treatment, etc. Hence the notion — “moderately well-off”. At the same time the idea that is not so much publicly exposed, but is still understandable to all the Chinese and efficient in uniting them, — in fact, the national idea — is to regain the former might of China. As for the reform model, in China it was created by the Chinese themselves, taking into account the experience of our New Economic Policy, reforms in Hungary and rapidly growing neighbouring countries — in the first place, South Korea and Singapore. It involved setting up free economic zones (FEZ) on an incredibly large scale to attract foreign capital and technologies to the country and acquire modern management experience. It largely accounted for the success of the Chinese reforms. – In fact, Russia has been — and still is — lacking in a strategy for developing the country, as well as a national idea. The reform model, in turn, was developed in Washington based on the neoliberal theory of the American Milton Friedman. Its implementation initiated by the team of Ye. Gaidar — A. Chubais, directly involving American advisers, is still under way today, though with some changes. It doomed the reforms to failure and predetermined actual nondevelopment of the real sector of economy disguised by a quick increase in prices for energy resources and GDP growth, correspondingly. This model is wellknown to Orientalists from the experience of developing countries; it is called “growth without development”. That is, due to the export of valuable raw materials and their price rise on the world markets, the country gains high income; however, only its small share is spent on developing the economy and infrastructure, the rest is appropriated by the ruling elite, spent on building relevant facilities in the capital, which gets elite houses, expensive shops, fitness and night clubs, whereas cottage settlements for well-off citizens crop up around the capital. To avoid political upheavals, part of the funds is also spent on social needs. At the same time, as a rule, there is an ongoing capital flight, and the state itself holds its foreign currency reserves in Western countries. – The author of the monograph points to the polar directions of priorities in the reform-making process in China and in Russia. The People’s Republic of China placed its bets on industrial, scientific and technical development through a short period of village “decommunization”, which made it possible to boost agricultural production within a short period of time. Due to economic, technological and other types of FEZ, China carried out industrialization and created a strong technological sector — actually at the expense of the West. In pursuit of profits due to the cheap workforce and taking into account the enormous market, nearly all major world corporations set up their production facilities, branches of scientific and technical centres, and laboratories in China. In fact, the West also prepared skilled staff for China. In the USA and a number of other countries over

2 million Chinese people got higher education or established themselves as big specialists. Quite a few of them came back to their home country. Many Western scientists, in turn, started delivering lectures or working at Chinese institutes, universities and research centres. – Russia placed its major bets on energy resources, which was not the best solution, resulting in deindustrialization and degradation of the technological sector. But since there was virtually no new economy in the making, as well as little development of the infrastructure, whereas bureaucratic hurdles for doing business did not reduce in number, there was no influx of foreign productive capital. At the same time a considerable part of the revenues obtained from exports of energy resources did not go into the economy, but was rather spent on prestigious, primarily sports-related projects. In the first place, it was the creation of a costly infrastructure to hold the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi and the 2018 world football championship. Quite some money was spent on providing all the necessary facilities for Russky Island, which was timed to coincide with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit Meeting held there. – The monograph focuses extensively on the personality of the reform “architect” Deng Xiaoping. He set private enterprise in motion, managed to combine plan and market, pointed out Mao Zedong’s mistakes, but did not get involved in debunking him, turned the Communist Party into a driving force behind market — and essentially — bourgeois reforms, gradually changing its ideology and social composition. Besides, what is very important, in order to avoid getting a new dictator, Deng Xiaoping insisted on introducing the principle of two terms of office, 5 years each, for two country leaders — the Head of State and the Prime Minister — in the Constitution and the Party Rules. This principle has been strictly observed ever since. It has become an efficient antidote to power abuse by country leaders due to the fact that after divesting themselves of authority, they have no immunity and may appear in court for illegal decisions and actions, just like any other citizens. – The author makes his forecast for the development of the two countries in the foreseeable future. In his opinion, it is more favourable for China than for Russia, whose Achilles’ heel is the resource-based economy. As long as there is oil and gas and their prices are high on the world markets, the situation in the country will remain stable. Should the prices fall for some reason, however, the state budget will have difficulty making both ends meet, just like the majority of Russians. Therefore, scientists, and primarily scientists at the Russian Academy of Sciences, have been calling upon the authorities to put emphasis on diversifying the Russian economy and stop wasting huge amounts on prestigious projects for a long time now. As far as one can judge, the authorities have finally heard the voice of science and come up with a positive response to it. – The present paper is theoretical though at the same time it contains a vast amount of factual material. It may be of interest to social scientists and specialists, as well as a broad range of readers, as it uses a vigorous style rather than pseudo-scientific language.


РАЗДЕЛ I. Китай и Россия: сходство и различия....14
ГЛАВА 1. Мы принадлежим к разным цивилизациям...14
ГЛАВА 2. Не только отличия, но и сходство...18
В чем живучесть китайской цивилизации?....23
Специфика китайского общества........24
ГЛАВА 3. Факторы, способствующие росту Китая и тормозящие развитие России....26
РАЗДЕЛ II. Китайский путь развития...43
ГЛАВА 4. Предыстория слагаемых Великих Перемен...43
Великими реформаторами не рождаются, ими становятся....52
ГЛАВА 5. Что способствовало смене вектора общественного развития....57
Существовала ли в годы правления Дэн Сяопина угроза срыва реформ?...62
ГЛАВА 6. Принципы китайской модели реформ......66
ГЛАВА 7. Приоритеты китайских реформ...70
Сельское хозяйство как ключевое звено первого этапа реформ.....70
Политика «открытости» как стратегия создания новой экономики....76
ВТО как инструмент торговой экспансии Китая....77
«Кровеносные сосуды» китайской экономики и социальной сферы...82
РАЗДЕЛ III. Социально-экономические преобразования в России.....92
ГЛАВА 8. Реформы 1990-х годов....92
ГЛАВА 9. Особенности реформ нулевых годов...98
ГЛАВА 10. Приоритеты российских реформаторов...101
Передел собственности....101
Решение продовольственной проблемы....103
На основании каких законов начинались и проводились реформы в аграрном секторе?...105
Состояние аграрного сектора....107
Транспорт — больное место России....108
Дороги как визитная карточка России...113
Потери реального сектора экономики и инфраструктуры...120
ГЛАВА 11. Экономическая стратегия: насколько реальны задачи?..123
Запоздалая модернизация.....133
Итоги двадцати лет реформ...136
РАЗДЕЛ IV. Политические реформы в Китае и России.....142
ГЛАВА 12. Особенности политических реформ в Китае...142
Политические реформы как важнейшее условие быстрого развития Китая...143
Мао Цзэдун остается великим государственным деятелем...143
Компартия превращается в проводника рыночных реформ...148
«Социализм с китайской спецификой»: новая реальность?....151
Политические реформы в Китае уже имеют историю....154
О характере китайского режима и судьбе компартии....163
ГЛАВА 13. Развитие политической системы в постсоветской России..171
Небольшой экскурс в историю.....171
Экономика и политика: их взаимодействие...178
Рождение новых форм государственного управления...182
Трудности становления новых форм жизни....185
Тандем: исключение или новая модель руководства государством?...191
Демократия или развитие: что первично?...193
РАЗДЕЛ V. Крупные проекты и научно-технический прогресс..199
ГЛАВА 14. Китай поражает мир....201
Китайские «кремниевые долины» как «мегапроекты»....215
ГЛАВА 15. Россия ищет свои пути технического прогресса...220
Образование и наука...220
Наиболее известные российские проекты...227
РАЗДЕЛ VI. Китай и мир....240
ГЛАВА 16. Что думают в России о Китае и его модели реформ...240
ГЛАВА 17. Что думают о быстром росте Китая на Западе....259